Youth cycling and professional careers

This series looks at Italian youth cycling rankings and the transition to professional racing. Before presenting my numbers, I explain what research already knows and, above all, who the numbers in the following instalments describe. That is where almost all the mistakes lie. Twenty years of research in a few paragraphs At the junior road World Championships each nation can enter at most six riders, and only the highest-ranked nations get all six places. Juniors, or Under 19s, are seventeen- and eighteen-year-olds. Anyone who has raced at that level remembers how hard it is to earn selection. Reaching that start line means passing every selection process youth cycling can devise. You could hardly look more destined for success. ...

The second of four instalments. In the first I explained who these numbers describe: one seventh of registered riders, those with at least one top-five finish. Here I answer the question that started the study: at what age do race results say something about the future? When I began, I was convinced there would be nothing to see at thirteen. The literature suggested as much, because at younger ages performance is hard to separate from maturation. Common sense said the same: a thirteen-year-old winning an Esordienti race, Italy’s category for thirteen- and fourteen-year-olds, or Under 15s in the literature, may be beating peers a year behind in puberty. Experience agreed. I could think of a long succession of champions at that age who were never heard of again. ...